Reframe your strategy with Scenarios
Let's start with a story...
The Oak and the Reeds by Aesop
A mighty oak tree was uprooted by a gale and fell across a stream into some reeds.
"How have you reeds, so frail, survived, when I, so strong, have been felled?" asked the oak tree.
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"You were stubborn and wouldn't bend," replied the reeds, "whereas we yield and allow the gale to pass harmlessly by."
How versatile is your strategic process?
The Problem
We are currently experiencing a paradigm shift. Our societies have entered a phase of turmoil where our mechanical reflexes no longer work and where our certainties are shaken on a daily basis.
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In this VUCA world, as the French philosopher Edgar Morin says, "the worst is not certain (and) the improbable can happen...".
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In this turbulent context, classical and rigid strategic planning methods are no longer appropriate.
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They are in fact actually based on a rather mechanical projection of the present situation, with some best/worst case scenarios. It takes the assumption that the future will look roughly like the present.
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However, these traditional models have a big blind spot: they forget to take into account the Megatrends and uncertainties that could have an impact on the company's future.
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The COVID-19 crisis made us realise that these major events, however improbable, when they occur, are likely to rock the company (hard).
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Like the oak tree, if you don't bend, you won't remain standing.
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So it's time to reframe your strategic planning as strategic adjustment, in tune with our VUCA world.
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When the winds of change blow, some build walls, others build windmills.
Chinese Proverb
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My Solution
What you need is a tool to map your way to more flexible, more thoughtful decisions, and to help you adapt to the changing circumstances. This is known as "scenario planning".
Scenario planning is not about predicting what will happen in the future (none of us has a crystal ball) but rather what might happen.
This approach helps you visualise the future by providing you with an array of possible futures that could potentially unfold.
You will be equipped with a map representing your potential business landscapes in a few years (or months, if a short-term horizon is concerned) with all the players who inhabit it.
You will see transformative scenarios as a strategic platform upon which you and your teams will be able to formulate more flexible strategies to ensure better resilience to whatever future trends or events come your way.
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Having been trained by the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) and the School of Creativity, my way of working is based on the Socratic method known as maieutics (midwifery). I "midwife" transformative scenarios to help you navigate your way through uncertainty.
I will start by using your purpose, mission and values as a reference framework. The process is also based on the analysis of your strengths and weaknesses as well as the megatrends and industry trends that cause uncertainties for your business.
Monitoring trends and uncertainties is part of the long-term process and is paramount to preparing your organisation for future disruptive events.
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I like the metaphor described by French physicist and philosopher Marc Halévy:
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“The sailboat will be able to go where and how it wants provided that it submits to the winds and currents, waves and tides.
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Each company is like a sailboat sailing on the ocean of markets.
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The skipper spends most of his time scrutinizing the weather, the stars and the sea to anticipate reefs and squalls, and to order the manoeuvres in good time.”
For more insight on the subject, browse our Brain Food section.
